In early March, the new IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir said that 2025 would be “a year of war.” After intensifying the war against Hamas and ongoing fighting with Iran’s five other arms that surround it like a ring of fire (plus the Iran-run international propaganda campaign on campuses and streets throughout the world) Israel has begun its long delayed massive assault on the head of the octopus—or septopus to be exact—itself. Israel has at last brought the fight to the monster’s head. Zamir’s words were true. The words he said today were also true: This is a critical operation to prevent an existential threat, by an enemy who is intent on destroying us…. We are at the point of no return.”

This is the largest-ever Israeli attack on the genocidal Iranian tyranny, and it has only just begun. After two years of war the “ring of fire” has been sputtering as Israel has decimated Hamas, neutralized Hezbollah, ended Iran’s control of Syria, and severely damaged the other Iranian tentacles, reshaping the Middle East for the better, but now it is time for the last, largest reshaping: neutralization of Iran as the reigning head of the region, with or without regime change, with or without a residue of nuclear capability.

The Israeli pager and walkie-talkie operation against Hezbollah, followed by systematic decapitation of its hierarchy, was the likely the cleverest military subterfuge since the Trojan Horse. But it was followed in a number of months by Ukraine’s brilliant infiltration of Russia with hidden armaments that destroyed half of that dictatorship’s military aircraft in a day. And a few weeks late Israel’s vast, brilliant, multilevel, game-changing assault on Iran began yesterday. Brains, not brawn, shattered these three modern tyrannies, each far more deserving of destruction than Troy.

Not so Gaza, where Israel’s unpreparedness for Hamas and Qatar’s own trickery put the boot on the other foot and forced Israel to fall back on sheer power—that is, ordinary war. That is not an oxymoron. It is a plain fact. Ordinary. War.

The photo shows the Modern War Institute at West Point, where John Spencer serves as the chair of urban warfare studies and a founding member of both the Institute and the International Working Group on Subterranean Warfare. He served 25 years in the army in ranks from private to sergeant first class and second lieutenant to major. In two combat deployments to Iraq he served as an infantry platoon leader and company commander. He is the author of three books and many articles on urban warfare and leadership. And he’s a prize-winning West Point teacher.

Given his expertise, it’s not surprising that he has closely followed and taught about Israel’s war since October 7, 2023. He has visited Gaza several times and (among many other articles and interviews) wrote in late April a remarkable piece called “Top 7 Lies about Israel and the IDF Pertaining to  Gaza.” Here they are.

“1. Lie: Israel is committing genocide in Gaza; 2. Lie: Israel intentionally targets civilians in Gaza; 3. Lie: The civilian-to-combatant ratio proves Israel is committing war crimes. 4. Lie: Israel is starving Gaza’s population; 5. Lie: Israel indiscriminately attacks hospitals and schools; 6. Lie: Israel is illegally occupying Gaza; 7. Lie: Israel violates Hamas prisoners’ rights under the Geneva Conventions.” In each of these sections Spencer provides not just persuasive but decisive evidence that those who perpetrate these bald-faced falsehoods are morally bankrupt deceivers. He concludes, “In a just world, Israel’s efforts would be recognized for what they are: the very definition of lawful and moral warfare.” This is what he is teaching America’s future officers right now at West Point: Israel is a military and moral model for our own future wars.

Or, consider Richard Kemp, a retired British Army Colonel who commanded an infantry battalion in Afghanistan and also took part in the Bosnian, Gulf, and Iraq Wars. He has spent most of his time in Israel since the current war began. He said many times, most recently on May 30th in the Daily Telegraph: Israel has killed many terrorists and would have killed “many more”….”had the IDF not been so determined to avoid killing the hostages and where possible to avoid harm to civilians with their scrupulously observed obligations under International Humanitarian Law.” Already today, he gave a detailed interview about the new Israeli attack: “Iran was threatening Israel ever since 1979, and now we’ve seen Israel carrying out what so far seems to be the most brilliant operation you can imagine. I doubt if any other country could do it. And it’s an historic occasion because, ultimately, as long as it goes to plan, then a major threat not just to Israel but to the whole region and the whole of the world will have been removed.”

Or, David Petraeus, who despite a romantic scandal remains one of America’s most highly decorated, experienced, and respected Generals, has consistently supported Israel throughout this war, although he has criticized the strategy of clearing areas of Gaza and then leaving them. He has strongly advised a clear and hold strategy instead, which is what Israel has been doing in Gaza for the past few months. “Only if you do that can you begin the restoration of basic services, reconstruction of damaged infrastructure, repair of schools, clinics, markets, roads, etc., and get people back into homes of some type… And they’ll identify the bad guys… And if you do this of course, then you can you can also introduce Palestinian security forces… Arab forces will come in—they’re not going to come in if there’s not security… Then you can demonstrate to the entire world that Palestinians and Israeli Jews can live side by side in harmony.”

So, leading military experts and experienced combat officers (not Jewish) support Israel in this recent process in Gaza and in this latest attack on Iran. The clear and hold strategy in Gaza has not gone smoothly, with tragic casualties occurring around food distribution, and there is little doubt that Iran’s response to today’s attack will intensify. But let us remember the names of those who outrageously and disgustingly began using the word “genocide” to describe Israel’s actions, thus debasing this precious and valuable word and insulting the memories of the 800,000 Tutsi, 2 million Cambodians, and of course the 6 million Jews the word was invented for—3 groups who are true victims of true genocides.

According to the UN, 160,000 homes have been destroyed in Gaza, and 276,000 damaged. Also according to the UN, about 55,000 Gazans (including terrorists) have been killed, out of a population of 2.2 million. How do you destroy 160,000 homes while killing 55,000 people? Obviously the great majority of the homes were empty—by Israel’s warnings and orders. Would anyone like to guess how long it would take for the IDF to kill all two million Gazans, if they wanted to? Instead they are moving them out of harm’s way. Gaza is at war. War is terrible. But war is not genocide. Not even close.

The collection of vile debasers and anti-Semites who have libeled Israel with “genocide” include Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, the governments of South Africa, Ireland, and Norway, Amnesty International—yes, I once admired it too—and others now thoroughly besmirched with this blood libel of their own twisted invention. It’s interesting to notice the move made by Ireland: they’ve called for a new definition of the word “genocide” so that the Jews could be guilty of it—thus admitting that nothing Israel has done meets any definition of the word that already exists, and also admitting that they want to degrade the meaning and value of the word.

Their names of these blood libelers will live in infamy. Shame on them all. Shame, shame, shame.

One year ago, in January 2024, I began this occasional blog by saying, “Israel is at war with the empire of Iran…” Not everyone understood that at the time, but we all understand it now. My last posting here, in September, was titled “Octopus Iran Loses Parts of Its Arms.” That was shortly after the devastating pager and walkie-talkie attacks on Iran’s Hezbollah and Israel’s killing of Hasan Nasrallah and the rest of the terror group’s most important leaders. Briefly, here’s what’s happened since.

Hamas men crowd in on frightened hostage for one more intimidation as they release her, January 19, 2025

On October 1st, Iran responded by launching 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, with little effect. We held our breath until the weekend of October 26th, when we saw Israel’s retaliation: an attack by more than 100 jets on 20 sites inside Iran, destroying missile and aircraft launching and manufacturing capacities without a single loss on Israel’s side. Its fighter jets blithely circled Tehran, demonstrating Israel’s complete air dominance and Iran’s impotence against it.

Iran vowed retaliation, of course, but three months later we have yet to see it.

In November, negotiations produced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran’s Hezbollah, which betrayed the promise it made on October 8th, 2023—the day it launched its war of aggression against Israel—to keep attacking Israel until there was a ceasefire in Gaza. Now it abandoned Iran’s Hamas, or what was left of it, to fight Israel alone.

So in one month, Israel crippled Iran and sent Iran’s Hezbollah on a massive ideological retreat and abandonment of its sworn allegiance. On November 26th, the same day the ceasefire began, rebel groups in Syria moved to fill the vacuum left when its tyrant, the unbelievably vicious Bashar-al-Assad, lost his two key allies, Iran and Iran’s Hezbollah. The rebels’ lightning war caused Assad’s army to melt away, Assad fled the country he and his father had so brutally ruled for half a century, and the rebels took power in the Syrian capital.

Israel, uncertain as to whether the victorious rebels would really abandon their Islamist terror tradition as they promised, proceeded to destroy the chemical, biological, and other weapons with which Assad had terrorized his people. Meanwhile the Russians fled and the Turks—no friends of Israel—moved in. Israel did not intend to remake the Middle East, but in the course of defending itself against terrorist aggression, it is on its way to doing just that.

Abandoned by Iran’s Hezbollah, Iran’s Hamas—reduced from an army to a guerilla band—agreed to a ceasefire with Israel on January 15th. Just one day before the end of the Biden administration and the start of the reign of Trump, who had vowed that “all Hell will break loose” if a ceasefire wasn’t reached before his inaugural, the ceasefire took effect with the release of three kidnapped women hostages and 90 Palestinians imprisoned in Israeli.

In truth, Israel has been fighting not an Octopus but a Sextopus—an Iranian head with six arms. Three of them, or four including Iran’s terror forces in Iraq, have been greatly damaged. However, like octopus arms, sextopus arms, and even to some extent the monster’s head, can regenerate. And two more of Iran’s six arms are still in pretty good shape.

One, Iran’s Houtis in Yemen, is 1,000 miles away, but nevertheless sends Israel missiles and drones that in turn send Israelis scrambling for shelter. However, now that there is a ceasefire in Gaza, they say they will not attack all the world’s ships in the Red Sea, but only ships with some connection to Israel. On January 21st the legitimate (and yes, UN-backed) leader of Yemen urged the West to attack the Houtis now, while their backers and masters in Iran are weakened.

So Yemen would welcome decisive defeat of the Houtis, liberating their country. It’s not an easy logistical problem to target so distant an enemy, but Israel has attacked Iran and it can attack Iran’s Houtis. It has already damaged their ports and other facilities, while the US and the UK—to protect their own shipping—have carried out weak raids. This Iranian tentacle is still alive and well.

The sixth Iranian appendage is not 1,000 but zero miles away: Iran’s terror guerrillas in the West Bank—known to Israelis as Judea and Samaria. This hidden menace is the next major target of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), now that both Lebanon and Gaza seem to be quiet for a time. This near-to-home enemy is of necessity a high priority. The fact that the territory also harbors Jewish terrorists will not help in its pacification.

Many doubt that the ceasefire will hold, even for its first six-week phase when 33 hostages (about a third of those remaining, with an unknown number alive) could be released. No one doubts that as the IDF withdraws and unchecked (in both meanings) aid flows into Gaza, what’s left of Iran’s Hamas will try, body and soul, to retake the strip and rule by terror again. The mob of automatic-rifle-brandishing masked men that pressed in on the three young women, even as they were released, tells us all we need to know about the future Hamas.

As for the head of the sextopus, it’s regeneration would include becoming a nuclear-weapon state—an existential threat far more massive than Israel has ever faced. Recall that Iran, along with all its appendages, has sworn, literally to Heaven, to eliminate the Jews from the Middle East. Freeing the Palestinians would be for them a  nice touch, but it’s mainly political cover for their true and sacred ultimate goal: erasing the Jews.

Whatever plans people in the region have for themselves will soon confront the power of Donald Trump and his emissaries. What will happen? We will see.

With thanks to Dr. Misha Pless

On Tuesday, since the below was posted, someone triggered explosions in the pagers of at least 2,800 people in Lebanon and Syria. On Wednesday, the same occurred with hundreds of walkie-talkies and radios. Almost no one in those countries uses such devices for communication except members of Iran’s Hezbollah and other Iran-owned terror groups. There were few deaths but many hundreds of serious injuries, narrowly focused on fighters who have launched or will launch hundreds of rocket attacks against Israeli civilians; every rocket directed at civilians is a war crime. If Israel did sabotage the devices, these grim attacks are its largest operation since the war started, possibly ever. From early reports, it will likely have the lowest civilian-to-combatant casualty ratio of any war, anywhere, in centuries. It will restore some of the deterrence lost on October 7th. It could result in a full-out war or, after a likely retaliation by Iran’s Hezbollah, the peace deal long sought by the United States.

For personal reasons I haven’t written for a while and I want to summarize where I think we are now. But first, the update of my chart on deaths in Gaza as counted by the Hamas-affiliated Gaza Health Ministry and reported by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).  Despite the continual repetition of Big Lies and blood libels about Israel’s conduct of this war, civilian vs. combatant deaths in Gaza (by Hamas’s own count) have been at a ratio of 1:1-2:1, which is low compared to recent wars.

The last systematic account by the UN is the widely cited 2021 Security Council report, “Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict.”  It states, “When explosive weapons were used in populated areas in 2020, a total of 88 percent of those killed and injured were civilians” (p. 3). Most of Israel’s war in Gaza has involved explosives in crowded areas. Due to Hamas’s well documented and self-proclaimed use of civilians as shields, the IDF’s challenge in protecting them has been exceptional. It succeeded by evacuating most crowded areas before bombings.

A new study shows that the ratio of civilians to combatants killed in Gaza is low compared to the Korean, Persian Gulf, and Iraq wars and comparable to the Vietnam and Balkan wars. The same study shows that the number of civilians killed per airstrike bomb according to Hamas is 0.5, approximately one fifth of the number in the 2017 Battle for Mosul or the Russia-Ukraine war. Careful precision bombing is obviously characteristic of what Israel has done in Gaza.

This does not work every time. Rarely, dozens of civilians have been killed in an airstrike, but the overall effort to protect civilians while Hamas systematically endangers them is remarkable. Civilian deaths are tragically part of the cost of every war, but Israel has minimized them, as emphasized by experts on urban warfare such as John Spencer, West Point department head and 25-year infantry veteran, and Colonel Richard Kemp, longtime commander of British forces in Afghanistan, who has often called the IDF the most moral army in the world.

The chart shows a recent Big Lie/blood libel by a different kind of “expert,” Barbara Slavin. In an interview with retired General Kenneth McKenzie, for years the head of US Central Command (which includes the Middle East), she recklessly and falsely claimed “that there are thousands of children that are starving to death” (minute 38). Where she could have gotten this wildly inventive number is (as the King says in The King and I) a puzzlement. There is no famine in Gaza.

Gen. McKenzie’s answer was to squarely blame Hamas for the “great tragedy” of civilian suffering and to state with emphatic clarity, “If you’re asking for moral equivalency from me on this, you’re not going to get it, because I don’t believe they’re morally equivalent.” She went on, laughingly, to point to her audience and say, “Let’s see if somebody has better luck.” Nobody took her up on this attempted manipulation of the question period.

So the lies go on, but fortunately they are rejected by people who matter more. The Iranian empire has surrounded Israel with well-organized, well-funded, and well-armed antisemitic terrorist violence. Iran’s Hamas is largely defeated, but Iran’s Hezbollah is active daily in the north and is much more dangerous. Iran’s Houthis have put an end to 90 percent of shipping in the Red Sea—12 percent of the world’s maritime traffic; they are launching increasingly advanced missiles against Israel from the south, one of which partly broke through its air defenses yesterday.

Iran’s Arab militias as well as Iran’s own elite military unit, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), operate freely in Syria and Iraq, and in collaboration with Iran’s Yemenite Houthis are right now massing—far from Yemen—for an October-7th-type attack on Israel’s border in the Golan Heights in the northeast. Last but not least, Iran’s spies, money, and weapons are fomenting terrorist violence in the West Bank, and even in Jordan, in Israel’s east.

All these Iranian octopus-arms, which completely surround Israel, have the same declared goal as Iran: to eradicate Israel by eliminative genocide against its Jews, then to move on to mass murder of the Jews around the world, and then to foment revolutions that will establish Islamic states throughout Europe and in the United States. These goals are not inferred, they are stated explicitly and repeatedly by Iran and its slavish clients in Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and the West Bank.

Israel is strong but it is not invulnerable. It cannot, by itself, repel Iran which, together with its servile non-Iranian armies, is ten times the size of Israel in population and a hundred times in land area. Israel has more advanced arms, but the gap is closing, and the mass effect of less advanced but far more numerous weapons could overwhelm Israel’s defenses.

To survive in the long run, Israel needs the United States, Europe, and moderate Arab countries for military, economic, and moral support. All these allies want Israel to defend itself, but not to the point where there can be no discussion of means and methods. The current government of Israel, contrary to the declared wishes of its own military leaders and Minister of Defense, is driving these friends away.